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ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue rose 32% sequentially to $600.3M, Adjusted EBITDA climbed 83% to $129.5M (22% margin), and net loss narrowed to $15.4M, reflecting higher activity, efficiency gains, and cost control in Stimulation Services, and volume ramp in Proppant Production .
  • Results exceeded Wall Street consensus: revenue $600.3M vs $495.7M estimate*, EPS -$0.09 vs -$0.326 estimate*, and EBITDA ~$127.1M vs ~$94.7M estimate*; management flagged tariff-driven uncertainty and OPEC+ production increases as headwinds for Q2 activity .
  • Segment performance was broad-based: Stimulation Services revenue $524.5M with 20% EBITDA margin; Proppant Production revenue $67.3M and 27% margin; Manufacturing $65.8M and 6% margin; “Other” $62.2M and 13% margin .
  • Capital discipline and liquidity focus: capex $53.0M, free cash flow -$13.6M, liquidity ~$76M; identified $70–$100M potential capex reductions to flex with market conditions .
  • Potential catalysts: ProPilot AutoFrac deployment (automation, fuel savings), integrated asset management driving record pump hours, and a strategic transaction with Flotek (gas conditioning units and 6-year leaseback; $40M seller note) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record operating efficiency: “new record in total pumping hours as well as average pumping hours per fleet,” underpinned by the asset management program and standardized fleet operations .
  • Technology progress: ProPilot AutoFrac requires “0 manual startup”; deployed in April in South Texas with plans to expand to West Texas, expected to reduce human intervention and optimize natural gas substitution rates .
  • Stimulation Services: revenue rose to $524.5M (from $384.4M), Adjusted EBITDA to $104.6M (from $53.6M), and margins improved to 20% (from 14%), supported by higher activity and efficiencies .

What Went Wrong

  • Tariff-induced uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase pressured commodity prices and clouded outlook; management expects Q2 pullback on a customer-by-customer basis .
  • Proppant Production faced ramp-up costs and planned mine improvements that weighed on margins (27% in Q1 vs 31% in Q4); segment volumes anticipated to “slightly decline” in Q2 .
  • Free cash flow turned negative (-$13.6M) due to working capital investments as activity scaled; liquidity remains modest at ~$76M with net debt ~$1.138B .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$581.5 $454.7 $600.3
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$3.0 $(101.7) $(15.4)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$159.9 $70.8 $129.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)n/a16% 22%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)n/a$54.3 $(13.6)

Results vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$495.7*$600.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$94.7*$129.5
EPS (Primary, $USD)-$0.326*-$0.092*

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ4 2024 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q4 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($M)Q4 2024 MarginQ1 2025 Margin
Stimulation Services384.4 524.5 53.6 104.6 14% 20%
Proppant Production46.5 67.3 14.2 18.3 31% 27%
Manufacturing61.9 65.8 3.0 4.0 5% 6%
Other54.9 62.2 4.4 7.7 8% 13%

Key KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Capital Expenditure ($M)$63.2 $52.5
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($M)$76.5 $38.7
Free Cash Flow ($M)$54.3 $(13.6)
Total Debt ($M)$1,109.0 $1,126.8
Net Debt ($M)$1,124.1 $1,138.4
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$14.8 $16.0
Liquidity ($M)$81.0 ~$76.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/CommentaryChange
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$250–$300M (maintenance $150–$175M; growth $100–$125M) Identified $70–$100M potential capex reductions; “not providing specific updated guidance” Flexibility to lower; formal guidance maintained without update
Stimulation Services activityQ2 2025n/aActive fleet count declined from Q1 peak; operators extending intervals; selective projects paused Qualitative softening
Proppant Production volumesQ2 2025n/aVolumes anticipated to slightly decline; partial offset from favorable pricing and logistics Qualitative softening
Liquidity actions2025n/aAdditional senior notes and term loan amendments expected to add ~$90M incremental liquidity in 2025 (post-Q1) Liquidity enhanced post quarter

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev.)Q4 2024 (Prev.)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Tech & AutomationTesting next-gen e-pumps; novel software for pumping/performance Continued investment in next-gen pumps and software; Livewire launch ProPilot AutoFrac deployed; aims to reduce human intervention; optimize gas substitution Advancing, commercialization beginning
Supply Chain & TariffsCompetitive pressures and attrition noted Pricing stabilized; monitoring inflation/tariffs Tariff-induced uncertainty impacting activity and costs; mitigation strategies underway Headwinds intensified
Macro/OPEC+/CommodityMarket challenged; soft gas-directed activity Seasonal Q4 trough; cautious 2025 recovery OPEC+ increase and tariffs pressured prices; Q2 pullback expected Near-term cautious
Regional TrendsWest/South Texas competitive; Haynesville soft Re-activated fleets; strongest in West/South Texas; Haynesville potential Softness in West Texas; strength in South/East Texas; Haynesville upside H2 Mix shift to gas basins
R&D/Asset MgmtRetiring 400k legacy diesel HP; asset management standardization Asset management program improved fleet readiness and efficiency Record pump hours; standardized maintenance; cost control Execution scaling
Power Generation (Livewire)Planning entry; microgrid opportunities Livewire launched; focus on in-house needs, adjacencies Flotek transaction; gas conditioning units; 6-year leaseback Strategic build-out

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter 2025 results were strong, with revenue increasing 32% and Adjusted EBITDA increasing 83% versus fourth quarter 2024… we achieved new operating efficiency records both in terms of pump hours and average pump hours per fleet” — Matt Wilks, Executive Chairman .
  • “ProPilot… requires 0 manual startup… eliminates the majority of the human decision points involved in Frac operations… optimize natural gas substitution rates to deliver fuel savings” — Matt Wilks .
  • “Economic uncertainty from tariffs, along with OPEC’s announcement to increase oil production… had an immediate impact on commodity prices… Early feedback indicates activity will decline in the second quarter” — Matt Wilks .
  • “We’ve identified approximately $70–$100 million in potential CapEx reductions to flexibly align with evolving market conditions” — Ladd Wilks .
  • “Total liquidity at quarter end was approximately $76 million… we intend to continue to use free cash flow in future periods to deleverage” — Austin Harbour, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Outlook Q2: Consensus implying ~10% revenue/EBITDA decline viewed as “ballpark”; visibility varies by customer; Q2 pullback expected .
  • Electric fleets: 7 e-fleets deployed, equivalent to 9 in horsepower terms; fully utilized on long-term contracts; robust demand for fuel-efficient fleets .
  • Efficiency drivers: Asset management standardization reduces costs and improves reliability; record pump hours across fleet mix .
  • Regional/pricing mix: Favorable shift from West Texas toward South/East Texas and North Louisiana; expected increase in logistics/storage with sand volumes .
  • Flotek transaction: Conveyed digitally enhanced gas conditioning/distribution units under 6-year lease; received 6M equity warrants; issued $40M seller note (5-year, 10%) .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beat: Revenue $600.3M vs $495.7M estimate*, EPS -$0.092 vs -$0.326 estimate*, EBITDA ~$127.1M vs ~$94.7M estimate* .
  • Q2 2025 set-up: Consensus revenue ~$500.0M*, EPS -$0.262*, EBITDA ~$94.7M*; management expects softer activity amidst tariffs/OPEC+ uncertainty .
  • Prior periods for context: EPS Q1 2024 $0.045*, Q4 2024 -$0.536* (seasonal trough) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong Q1 beat across revenue, EPS, and EBITDA; efficiency records and integrated asset management drove margins to 22%, while Proppant volumes ramped significantly early in the quarter .
  • Near-term caution: Management expects Q2 activity to decline due to tariffs and OPEC+ effects; mix shifting toward gas basins with potential Haynesville upside in H2’25 .
  • Capital flexibility: Identified $70–$100M capex reduction capacity; liquidity focused (ABL availability $66M, total liquidity ~$76M) amid net debt ~$1.138B .
  • Technology moat expanding: ProPilot AutoFrac and Livewire power generation strengthen differentiation; expect benefits in fuel substitution, reliability, and operating costs .
  • Segment momentum: Stimulation Services EBITDA more than doubled sequentially; Proppant margins compressed on ramp-up costs but pricing/logistics expected to offset softer volumes in Q2 .
  • Trading lens: Near-term risk to Q2 prints; watch for updates on tariff impacts, gas-led demand, and capex actions. Medium term, integrated model plus tech adoption and asset standardization support margin durability and potential estimate resets higher if H2 trends materialize .

Appendices

Prior Quarter Benchmarks (for trend)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$575.3 $454.7
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$134.8 $70.8
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$30.9 $54.3
CommentaryRecord efficiencies; competitive pricing, gas softness Seasonal trough; efficiency pickup starting in Q1

Additional Liquidity Actions Post-Q1

  • Series of senior secured notes and Alpine term loan amendments expected to provide ~$90M incremental liquidity in 2025; further issuances in Q3/Q4 subject to closing conditions .